On October 25th last year (2014), a trading system named Double Bollinger Bands or DBB was introduced by Kamel (read this). This trading system is so popular and is used by so many traders on a daily basis.
The most important feature of this trading system is that it is mechanical. It means it doesn’t need any analysis and interpretation. To have a long trade setup, all you need is that the last closed candlestick to be closed above BB1 Upper Band while the previous two candlesticks should have been closed below it. To go short, the last closed candlestick had to be closed below BB1 Lower Band while the previous two candlesticks should have been closed above it.
As you see this system is 100% mechanical, and even a 7 years old kid can distinguish the trade setups.
Like all the other trading systems, this trading system causes you to lose money sometimes. In spite of this, experience shows that it has a good success rate and if you follow its rules properly, you will usually have some profit left at the end of the month. When this trading system was shared on LuckScout, some LuckScout users back-tested it. The results were really impressive, meaning that a trader can rely on this system, specially if he has started trading recently and have not become experienced enough in technical analysis and candlesticks patterns.
Since October 25th last year that I have been reading and answering your comments about this system, I have found out that there are a few things that you can do to increase your success rate in trading the DBB system. Although this system is supposed to be 100% mechanical, but your success rate will dramatically go up if you consider a few small technical and non-technical factors:
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1. Learn the System Rules Properly:
As far as I know, many of you still don’t know how this trading system works and how long and short trade setups form. Many a times I hear that some of you lose money after taking a position based on DBB system, but when I check I see that no trade setup was formed at all. This is because these traders still don’t know what the DBB system trading rules are and how the DBB trade setups form.
So, if you like to follow this system, the first and most important thing you have to do is that you make sure that you have understood the rules properly and precisely and you are able to distinguish the setups, otherwise you will enter the market when there is no setup at all.
I am not going to explain this system’s rules here in this post, because it is already explained in details in some other articles. Please refer to those articles and read them carefully: Double Bollinger Bands Strategy To Trade Forex
2. Bollinger Middle Band’s Role:
Bollinger Middle Band usually works as a strong support/resistance in short/long positions. It means if you go long (you buy) while the price is still below Bollinger Middle Band, chance are it makes the price bounce down and hit your stop loss. It is the same when you go short.
This rule is true in all different trading system.
In DBB system, a trade setup forms when Bollinger Middle Band is already broken. I mean when candlestick #3 closes above BB1 Upper Band to form a long trade setup, either this candlestick or one of the previous ones has already closed above Bollinger Middle Band. So we don’t have to be worried about the price to be stopped from going up by this moving average (Bollinger Middle Band is a 20 Simple Moving Average).
However, there is another thing that we have to care about. It is the position of candlestick #1 and #2 with Bollinger Middle Band. Experience shows that in long trade setups that candlesticks #1 and #2 are closed above Bollinger Middle Band, price goes up better, and so these trade setups have a higher success rate. This is true that in order to have a long trade setup, candlesticks #1 and #2 have to be closed below BB1 Upper Band and candlestick #3 has to be closed above it. However, the trade setup works better and makes the price go up stronger if candlesticks #1 and #2 close above Bollinger Middle Band and below BB1 Upper Band (they close between Bollinger Middle Band and BB1 Upper Band).
Also, the closer the candlesticks #1 and #2 close prices to BB1 Upper Band, the stronger is the trade setup. It means it is better the candlesticks #1 and #2 close prices not to be too far from BB1 Upper Band.
Sometimes, candlesticks #1 and #2 close as bearish candlesticks either below Bollinger Middle Band or a little above it. Or one of them closes below Bollinger Middle Band and the other one above it. And suddenly candlestick #3 goes up and closes above BB1 Upper Band, and so a long trade setup forms. This cannot be a strong long trade setup, because when the last 3 candlesticks close like this, it means the market is choppy and unstable. It means bulls have not taken the full control yet, and so it is possible that the next candlestick goes down and hits the stop loss.
On the below screenshot I am showing you two long trade setups that are formed under the conditions I explained above (specially the left one). As you see in the left trade setup, candlesticks #1 and #2 are closed above Bollinger Middle Band (the dashed line) and so close to BB1 Upper Band. This is the example of a good and typical long trade setup.
The second one (the one at right) is also good. The problem is that candlestick #1 is bearish. In spite of this, its lower shadow reflects the bullish pressure which is good. It is still a good long trade setup, but the left one is much better.
Whenever you locate a long trade setup, compare it to the left trade setup on the below screenshot and take it if they look similar.
Here is what I call a bad long trade setup (below). It is still a trade setup, but it is not a good one. Candlesticks #1 and #2 are closed almost below Bollinger Middle Band which means bears are still strong. As you see, the price doesn’t go up strongly when candlestick #3 closes. It goes up only for 2 small candlesticks and then it goes down strongly.
The other thing is that candlestick #3 closed not only above BB1 but also above BB2 Upper Band. It means this candlestick made the market a little overbought and so a bearish counter-attack was possible:
Here is two other bad long trade setups. Now you know why they are “bad”:
It is the same with short trade setups. It is better to have candlesticks #1 and #2 formed below Bollinger Middle Band and above BB1 Lower Band when a short position forms. Also the closer the candlesticks #1 and #2 close prices to the BB1 Lower Band, the stronger the setup.
Everything I explained about long trade setups has to be considered for short trade setups too. Just the direction is opposite.
Here is a good and typical short trade setup. As you see, candlesticks #1 and #2 closed above BB1 Lower Band. Their close prices are close to BB1 Lower Band and far away from Bollinger Middle Band.
The below screenshot shows two bad short trade setups. With the first one at the left, candlestick #1 is closed with a long lower shadow above Bollinger Middle Band. It means bulls still have the control. With the second trade setup (right), candlesticks #1 and #2 are both bullish which is not good for a short trade setup:
Here is another bad short trade setup (below). Candlesticks #1 and #2 are closed right below Bollinger Middle Band. Besides, one of them is bearish and the other one bullish. They have long lower shadows too. These are all the signals indicating the bulls strength:
3. Follow the Trend:
Going against strong trends has a higher risk, even when the trade setup is too strong. It is recommended to avoid the DBB trade setups when they are against the trends. Conversely, agreeable trade setups usually have much better results:
4. Learn Technical Analysis If You Can:
Technical analysis always help you take the setups with more confidence. A DBB short trade setup formed after a support breakout, or a support breakout formed after a DBB short trade setup are much better to take, both for DBB and breakout traders:
Although DBB is a mechanical system that doesn’t need any analysis and interpretation, it would be great if you learn some analysis and use it in trading this system. At least, you can consider the three candlesticks close prices with more caution, and differentiate the good and bad setups from each other. It helps you have a much higher success rate.
Above all, before taking any positions based on any trading system, you’d better to learn the system properly first.