The Impact of Non-Farm Employment Change on the Stock Market

4TH Nov zoom room opened very early as we had so much news and analysis to do
So Vahid opened at 07:10 EST ..Yes an early start !

The news was around the Non Farm Payroll. It measures …Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect ….greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for currency;
Next Release Dec 2, 2022
This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts;
Why do Traders Care. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

We analyzed the effect of the news for last month. The news on October 7th was bigger than forecast and this is usually good for the dollar and as we know often, what is good for the dollar is more than likely not so good for the US 500 market.

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Vahid spent some time looking at the trend if you look at the chart below we saw a break though of the lower support line after the news broke which looked entirely consistent with the overall market sentiment which as you can see on the longer term chart is down.

Inevitably the sensible option in a downtrend and with the news sending the market lower, was the sell position which we took. Similar to yesterday the market sadly reversed rapidly showing bullish momentum, shortly afterwards we saw it wiping out our trade by triggering the stop loss of 2%.
With market strength now in evidence, and the resistance line also being broken (as can be seen on the 15 minute chart below), the obvious trade now was a “buy” position. We took this before seeing a big bearish candle wipe out our buy trade also stopping out with another 2% loss.

Vahid continues to try and keep things as simple as possible for us and today was no exception. About two weeks ago he revealed a strategy that can work well when we are likely to see a spike in either direction of a news event however.

Vahid told us to take two “pending” orders above and below the price, before the news event.
This way traders can utilize the breakout strategies because the objective is to scalp the market for a quick profit target.

As we know, Non-farm payroll data is an incredible volatility source that causes significant price swings.
One strategy could be, a few minutes prior to the release of important news, mark the lows and highs of the last few-hours of the trading period on the 15 minute chart.
Place sell order below the range’s low and a buy order above the range’s high.
For the two orders, place a secure stop-loss order on the opposite side of the range.
Wait for news and the initial reaction to trigger one of the orders.
After getting an open position size, cancel the pending order.
Set stop loss and take profit on existing position. Remember too that when in profit you can always move the stop loss in order to profit even if the market turns against you.

One thing we can all rely on is for Vahid to take the rough with the smooth and always tell us the truth. Since we are all in Demo more (or should be) it was no big deal, especially on the back of three consecutive winning days in November. We still see ourselves 1.6% ahead on the month so we aim to come back stronger and better on Monday.

For those interested, the charts below show each month of the news release today since June. And below is the breakdown of the NFP news for previous months so you can see the effect this had on the chart linked below.

Have a great weekend everybody. Thank you for your continued support of these reviews. More from me on Monday, direct from the trading ZOOM ROOM

Date actual result… forecast…..previous month

Nov 4 261k 196k 315k 07.30am
Oct 7, 2022 263K 248K 315K 8.30am
Sep 2, 2022 315K 295K 526K 8.30am
Aug 5, 2022 528K 250K 398K 8.30 am
Jul 8, 2022 372K 260 384K 8:30 am
Jun 3, 2022 390K 325K 436K 8:30am

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Myriam Pierre
6 days ago

Trading is worthwhile,no matter how the market swings.It can be volatile,but no matter what the news media tells you,it is the best way to build wealth and retirement. Stop loss is always mentioned and it is essential to apply this.

Veronica Chakeredza
18 days ago

Thank you for this article Andy. It gives an open view of what trading is about and how to win. Thanks to Vahid for the education

Ovie Peter
22 days ago

Andy thank you once again for these wonderful publication NFP, it teach me lots of things concerning trading. You have done it again, you are so amazing. NFP is a strong indicator a trader should be watch before jumping into trading, Andy you are great, thanks so much.

Andrzej Dudzik
22 days ago

One more thing, as I read Andy’s comment, I feel like I am reading a Goldman Sachs market analysis.
Did Andy work at Goldman?

Andrzej Dudzik
22 days ago

Among the many positive, one-sided and uncritical comments, mine will be a bit different. I do not know what the fate of this project initiated by you will be, but of course I am rooting for you to make all your plans come true. But that’s not what I want to write about now. Two things bother me a bit. I will start with the second, the first will remain a secret for now. I am not the boss here, but when a few weeks ago you presented pending orders for the first time in the trading room, a dozen or so members of LuckScout did not appear at the next meeting. I think the reason was simple; there was no simplicity (unintentional word play). Many members of the community have never dealt with trading and do not know what trading is at all. Very often they do not know what they expect, they cannot even place a market order, they have no idea what a stock exchange or the Forex market is. I see the awards. Vahid, you are a great seller and marketer (if I sell something I will apply), you have sold hundreds of LuckScout members their dreams using very simple methods. Everything seems cool at first – we were born naked and wet, then things took a turn for the worse. I think you have to be careful that members of the Luckscout family, including myself, do not fall under the gutter and become convinced that trading is a complicated get-poor-quick-scheme (it’s my invention. I don’t know if I wrote it correctly).

You are the boss here, of course, and you surely know what you are doing.

PS. I also know what I am doing, the points are mine.

Vahid Chaychi
Reply to  Andrzej Dudzik
22 days ago

Hi Andrzej🙂❤️🌺🌹
Thank you for your comment!
I agree with you 100%. I do know that there are problems in what I am doing and it has to become improved, and what you say is an important part of the changes I have to make.
Your comment came in the right place at the right time, because the past month that we have been trading with each other, taught me some important lessons that I want to apply them to the next meetings.
Live trading through Zoom was something that I had never done before and I did know that it would make me face some problems that I had never been familiar with. I did know that it could even impact my own trading, which is what it really did. However, I don’t give up because I do believe that trading, the way that I do it, is something that makes these people financially free, for free, and risk-free. I have never doubted in this even for one second. But, the way that I offer it to the members MUST be improved, which is what I am doing with the help of the friends like you.
There are two things that I must never forget and I must work toward achieving them:
1. Members must never think that what I do is too complicated. Therefore, simplicity will remain the most important part of the work.
2. Members must start making real money through what they receive and learn in our trading program.
I will work nonstop on achieving these. Thanks to you, I will stop talking about complicated things like pending orders. I want to have a fresh start from today. I will let you know 🙂
Lastly, you don’t know how happy I am to have you here. I know that the eyes of a wise and precise man are always watching, and his brain is always analyzing what I do.
Thank you, and please don’t give up on us/me. I love you Andrzej❤❤❤
How many points do you get to keep quiet at least for today???🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Andrzej Dudzik
Reply to  Vahid Chaychi
22 days ago

It’s okay. A few days after the trading room meetings started, I wrote in the post to your report that you need to get used to live trading. As live trading I understood trading in front of the audience. This form of trading is stressful for you, what can be seen, especially since you have raised high expectations in us.
My price has not changed: lifetime access to the trading room.

Vahid Chaychi
Reply to  Andrzej Dudzik
22 days ago

Thank you again Andrzej!
So honored to award you lifetime access to the trading room. However, does it mean that you won’t post on the site anymore?
I love to see on the site, playing games, and posting your jokes and other things…

Andrzej Dudzik
Reply to  Vahid Chaychi
22 days ago

I may have a resistance line.

Vahid Chaychi
Reply to  Andrzej Dudzik
22 days ago

I push you to break above it 😀

Andrzej Dudzik
Reply to  Vahid Chaychi
21 days ago

Thank you very much Vahid. It is a great honor to be awarded in this way by such an outstanding trader.

Vahid Chaychi
Reply to  Andrzej Dudzik
21 days ago

You’re welcome Andrzej! 🙂
Thank you too!🙂❤️🌺🌹

Joshua Chan
23 days ago

Well Thanks Andy for the detailed explanation with pictures..its a big help for others who still dont understand about price chart..
I see you using Rsi 14..thats great but I prefer using Rsi 9 and bolliger band like Vahid do…Its help much for me..
About setting two pending orders..before the news release is the best way for us to get quick profit at the moment..
one pending orders for Sell and others for buy..also dont forget to set stoploss properly and the reasonable target…maybe 1:2 or 1;3 better..

Would love your thoughts, please comment.x

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