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GOLD behavior

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This topic contains 224 replies, has 19 voices, and was last updated by Shalewa A Shalewa A 1 week, 3 days ago.

Viewing 40 posts - 161 through 200 (of 225 total)
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  • #125597
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
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    Very solid Trading Moaied 🙂

    I chickened out after the small bullish 03.01. candle but I learned a very valueable lesson.

    This showed me how strong these levels (78.6 Silver, 61.8 Gold etc.) are. If we draw the Silver down-fib-swing from the moment the downtrend started (somewhere in the middle of last year) we also have a 50 fibs alligning with 78.6 and the 162 extension.

    Also I noticed here what Raj said yesterday “we prefer the market to slugglishly reach these levels like 78.6” – if we get a rally to these levels e.g. aud/nzd or the current usd/jpy move, we better stay out.

    Are you all scared of the USD crushing us now :)? haha

    I was bullish Gold/Silver but my opinion changed after yesterdays candle showed what they rally want.

    #125599
    N A
    N A
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    Thank you Moaied for updating!! and my congratulations!!

    #125605
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
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    I am with you in what you said Sebastian, thank you.

    thank you for your support N A.

    #125610
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
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    The middle band for Gold and Silver and also JPY is not reliable in my opinion.

    As Ben said for trendlines, we remove them from our chart when they are violated. I treat the middle band for Gold/Silver in the same way so I’m inclined to ignore it.

    Take a look on the monthly chart. We went above the middle band, then below it again with strong bearish moves, then above it again and now as if there was nothing we could soon be below it again.

    #125618
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
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    yes you are right about that Sebastian.

    #125807
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
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    #126808
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
    • Topics: 1
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    hey guys, just a little note to watch for:

    View post on imgur.com


    post your thoughts on where the odds lay???

    #126818
    Jordi George
    Jordi George
    Participant
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    Good morning, my friend 🙂
    This is my view about Gold

    https://charts.mql5.com/14/616/gold-d1-admiral-markets.png

    #126831
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
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    thank you Jordi, your point of view is strong, and also I fever the bears for now too.

    #126832
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
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    Great job guys, it really seems like Gold cannot break the resistance area lining up with the 200 SMA.
    Interesting is that Silver was above the 200 SMA all the time but also below the strong resistance.

    One of the charts is lagging.

    #126838
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
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    thank you Sebastian,

    here is my chart for silver:
    https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/6852493/silver-d1-fxpro-financial-services

    #126857
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
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    Let’s wait and see, I’d be careful with counter-trending this one after yesterday’s usd/jpy reversal. usd/jpy went back into the strong resistance zone and 86/162 of the bull swing:

    We have to consider the correlation and usd/jpy looks in favour for the metals the break resistance. Although I agree with you based on the past swings a breakdown would have looked more likely.

    Need to learn about that, so I stay out for the PMs for now 🙂

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    #126908
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
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    thank you Sebastian, very interesting.

    you are really mastering the fibo’s too.

    #126967
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
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    hey guys, last week I high lighted if the resistance will hole or not:

    View post on imgur.com


    now we ended with a resistance spike breakout (a bullish doji)!!!
    does it need a conformation for bears???

    View post on imgur.com


    my view: sense the usdindex ended breaking the all previous high S/R zone again with a bullish candle, which we use this index supposedly as the opposite of gold movement:

    View post on imgur.com


    and Silver ended with a strong bearish candle with a good upper spike at a resistance level:

    View post on imgur.com


    all that signals the good to go selling gold with out a conformation candle in my view.

    last: I notes the lower shadow if the last silver candle, but we have the odds for selling it too if you agree.

    hope my analyze for price action is any benefit my friends, and love to see your thought too,

    solid trading to all.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by Moaied Suhail moaied suhail.
    #126969
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
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    Hi Moaied,

    I really don’t know where the USD is going.

    The Gold candle could be a reaction to the resistance line and it could easily close above it – the candle is not strongly bearish and Silver also has a strong lower shadow, which is not to convincing for bears.

    usd/jpy stil looks bearish and moves in the same direction. The USD Index has been going up a lot in the last two weeks, so I think it becomes less probable that it continues to do so.

    #126970
    Fidelio No2nd...
    Fidelio no2nd…
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    Hi Moaied, thanks for your detailed analysis.
    It could be an opportunity to sell but looking at my Ichimoku charts I would still prefer to wait for a confirmation, here is why:

    1) XAUUSD weekly:
    – price action in the middle of the cloud = neutral
    – Chikou Span at the doorstep of historic closes = neutral
    – price action broke on the upside both Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen = bullish
    – with last closing Tenkan Sen crossed above Kijun Sen = bullish

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/dA2AKMbc/

    2) XAUUSD daily:
    – price action above the Kumo = in bullish territory
    – Chikou Span above historic closes = bullish
    – Tenkan Sen crossed above Kijun Sen on March 27 and both kept widening and now pointing upward = bullish

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/djiimjYz/

    3) XAGUSD weekly:
    – price action in the middle of the cloud and currently in retracement after testing Senkou Span A = neutral
    – Chikou Span at the doorstep of historic closes = neutral
    – price action broke on the upside both Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen = bullish
    – Tenkan Sen crossed above Kijun Sen, both flat = moderately bullish

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/soCYRuVO/

    4) XAGUSD daily:
    – price action above the Kumo = in bullish territory
    – last CS crossed below Tenkan Sen but retraced after testing the Kumo from above = moderately bearish
    – Chikou Span at the doorstep of historic closes = neutral
    – Tenkan Sen crossed above Kijun Sen on March 27 and both kept widening = bullish

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/yduAMr92/

    5) DXY weekly:
    – price action above the Kumo = in bullish territory
    – Chikou Span above historic close = bullish
    – last CS crossed above Tenkan Sen but S/R line kept unbroken = moderately bullish
    – imminent and uncertain exit from triangle pattern due to political tensions mixing with disappointing last Nonfarm payrolls release

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/q3lAmp1C/

    6) DXY daily:
    – price action barely penetrating the Kumo from below but retraced after testing resistance line = neutral
    – Chikou Span below historic close = bearish
    – Tenkan Sen crossed below Kijun Sen on March 21 but now pointing upward = moderately bearish.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/waO0NHTy/

    All the best.

    #126973
    Fidelio No2nd...
    Fidelio no2nd…
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    I forgot the MOST important: looking at the H1 chart it is obvious that there was some large sellers in the last 4-5 hours of the day and week at Europe and UK close, well after US data release.
    But we are still above the cloud in a global unbroken uptrend.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/TkvanpQQ/

    #126980
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
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    thank you Sebastian, as for where is the usd going!!??,
    well Trump hit SYRIA hard few days ago, and claimed it cost 1b usd and charged saudi Arabia for it lol, if he keep doing that, the USD will definitely raise hahahahaha.

    to be serious I know what you mine, and I dont think USD will go fare up:
    https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/6872826/us-indx-m7-d1-fxpro-financial-services
    and here is my approach on glod, a short term only:
    https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/6872796/gold-d1-fxpro-financial-services

    #126983
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
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    Fidelio, you have dune a great job, I like your work on this system; and you make it really shine man.

    yes at this stage its hard to confirm strongly the bear move, especially with the Ichimoku system, because this system is good for continuation trading mostly, and I use it for that; it doesn’t pick up the move from its first stages.

    I made my prospective from three angle (GOLD-USD-SILVER), and I may be wrong… I will update ether way, and I thank you both for your generous inputs.

    #126986
    Fidelio No2nd...
    Fidelio no2nd…
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    Thanks for your support Moaied.

    #127032
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
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    hey guys, just updating post 9.4.2017 #126967,

    View post on imgur.com


    where I analyzed and believed a short term bear move on the way, but Sebastian and Fidelio posted why the market is not very clear for bears yet, and they where right:
    https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/6885895/gold-d1-fxpro-financial-services

    things didn’t work out for bears, sorry to have failed you this time guys.

    #127043
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
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    Nobody fails Moaied. We just need a good R:R ratio. I had more losing than winning trades last month but made money 🙂
    However I’m trying to improve the winning ratio now so it should be more like Raj once we master the system.

    Your analysis is great and we could have had a deeper retrace – nobody knows.

    #127060
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
    Participant
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    Here is my view for Silver.

    Silver needs to clear 61.8 and the 19.0 area, which has attracted many sellers in the past. We can see many candles and shadows lining up in the 19.0 area, best visible on the daily chart.

    The key resistances seem to be 19.0 and 20.0 which is also the 162 extension of the current bull move, that started in December 2016.

    If Silver does not clear 21.0 in the long-term and make new highs, Bulls have a real problem as well, because this retrace from 21.0 has been going on for a really long time, so it could be a sideways market.

    My bias is bullish, but I think there will be many smashes along the way at the key levels etc.

    If Silver does not clear 18.5 in the next 1-2 weeks, there should be also a problem for bulls, because they are still caught in a lower high and yesterday’s candle looks nice but could be meaningless if they do not clear the highs.

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    #127063
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
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    Gold

    I would expect strong resistance at 1300 lining up with the election candle from November and 86 retrace of the last weekly bear swing.

    One very positive point is that both metals closed above their 200 SMA (weekly + daily above this moving average).

    Moaied thaught us that this moving average is really important for the metals and I can see his point now, thank you for that 🙂

    I noticed that especially commodities seem to like this SMA, e.g. I attached the Oil chart which reversed not only at 61.8, but also at the 200 SMA.

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    #127067
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
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    Stocks yesterday closed with a bullish pin bar, this is dangerous considering the usd/jpy short position and makes me wonder which chart is lagging.

    #127068
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
    Participant
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    We have been learning this stuff for so long, and we learned that JPY is the safe haven currency.

    Trump sends his war ships to North Korea, Japan is next door and JPY appreciates. I will never understand 🙂 But I know that JPY buying is a good idea.

    #127077
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
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    thank you for your support Sebastian; your analyze (silver-gold-oil) is highly appreciated, and I am very happy to hear your account is in the positive 🙂.

    as for Trump been near to north korea head of state, its like the 220 volt two lines 🙂 things could blow up if they touch each other hahahahaha.

    #127081
    Fidelio No2nd...
    Fidelio no2nd…
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    Let’s hope they just don’t blow us up all together!…

    #127085
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
    • Topics: 1
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    yep 🙂

    #127109
    Ben Aqiba
    Ben Aqiba
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    • Topics: 2
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    Hey Mo,

    it seems that we have some strong movement on Gold this days,and it looks like that yesterday break was valid,although the angle was shallow
    https://charts.mql5.com/14/703/gold-d1-fxpro-financial-services.png

    Now the price is below Monthly resistance line
    https://charts.mql5.com/14/703/gold-mn1-fxpro-financial-services.png

    which is the almost same line it seems to me like on Weekly time frame
    https://charts.mql5.com/14/703/gold-w1-fxpro-financial-services.png

    #127110
    Sebastian Brandt
    Sebastian Brandt
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    Excellent trendline for Gold Ben, thanks I didn’t see that 🙂

    #127112
    Ben Aqiba
    Ben Aqiba
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    Thank you Sebastian 🙂

    #127113
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
    • Topics: 1
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    good post Ben, thank you for your contribution.

    #127115
    Ben Aqiba
    Ben Aqiba
    Participant
    • Topics: 2
    • Replies: 1348

    You are welcome Mo 🙂

    #127117
    Fidelio No2nd...
    Fidelio no2nd…
    Participant
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    Hi there, alert on weekly Ichimoku as well: potential Kumo breakout coupled with stochastic in overbought territory!

    We already had Tenkan/Kijun cross upward, Chikou Span over historic closes, and now resistance line converging with Senkou Span A and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement being tested for a fill-or-kill.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/LHHKPOZk/

    #127171
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
    • Topics: 1
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    thank you for the Ichimoku view Fidelio.

    #127440
    Mauer C
    Mauer C
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    Hi everyone

    There are a few sell signals on the daily chart. A weak engulfing pattern that has covered a few candles. And the last candle is an inside day. Is this considered as a stronger signal? I mean because there is more than one signal.
    Also the price could not break above the resistance level at 1291 yet. What do you think?

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by Mauer C Mauer C.
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    #127455
    Fidelio No2nd...
    Fidelio no2nd…
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    Hi Mauer C,

    For me it feels like we could have a re-test of the 1270 area if we go further below means we would have a signal on daily Ribbon.
    That level coincides in Ichimoku with daily Tenkan Sen and in H4 with the bottom of the cloud. Please note to bearish signals in H4: Chikou Span below historic closes and Tenkan Sen having crossed below Kijun Sen.

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    #127494
    Moaied Suhail
    moaied suhail
    Participant
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    hey Hauer, the last 6 candles could be just a retrace before continuing up!

    now to put in mind that the strong full of oil prices will help USD$ go up, which will but the pressure on gold to go down.
    please correct me on me conclusion with gold,oil,USD$

    #127554
    Fidelio No2nd...
    Fidelio no2nd…
    Participant
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    • Replies: 71

    Hello traders,

    OK so 1270 area has been tested so what’s ahead of us?
    Seemingly the weeks long resistance is fully active and rejected down all break out attempts.
    Ichimoku is showing a retracement bouncing back from upper clould limit matching the resistance line after the relief provided by the very likely victory of Mr. Macron at the 2nd round of French Presidential elections and the booming stock markets. Should price action cross below daily 200SMA around 1254 it is very likely that we will have a continuation of the correction around the Tenkan Sen level standing at 1245 which should be confirmed by Chikou Span about to cross below historic closes.

    Happy trading

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/MI37ADSi/

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/VOs4HotX/

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