Trading USD/CHF: Trading the Long-Term Forecast

USD/CHF is one of the most popular currency pairs. It reflects the value of USD or US dollar better than other currency pairs because CHF or Swiss Franc’s value is usually constant. It doesn’t change that much. Therefore, the USD/CHF price fluctuations simply reflect the USD value fluctuations.

What Does USD/CHF Mean?

USD/CHF is  currency pair used in the Forex trading planforms to buy and sell USD and CHF against each other. USD/CHF means USD against Swiss Franc. USD stands for the United States dollar, and CHF means Swiss Franc. When you buy USD/CHF, it means you buy USD against CHF. When you sell USD/CHF, it means you sell USD against CHF. This is what currency or Forex traders do to make money.

Best Time to Trade USD/CHF

If you are a Forex day trader, then New York session is the best time to trade USD/CHF. It is when the New York stock market starts working.

If you are not a day trader, then you can use the longer time frames, like daily, weekly and daily to locate the trade setups, and you will need to hold your positions for a longer time. Therefore, it doesn’t make sense to ask what the best time is to trade USD/CHF.

USD/CHF is usually a trending currency pair, which is good for swing traders.

What CHF Currency Stands for?

CHF stands for Confoederatio Helvetica Franc. The first two words are Swedish and mean Swiss Confederation, and Franc is the name of their currency. Therefore, CHF means Swiss Confederation Franc.

USD/CHF Economies and News

CHF is a stable currency. There are several economic news related to this currency, but they usually have no impart on CHF’s value when they get released because they are also stable and they don’t change that much. The only thing that can change the CHF value significantly is the interest rate that they rarely change.

These are some of the most important CHF-related news that only the first one is effective to change CHF value when they change it:

  • Swiss National Bank Interest Rate
  • Trade Balance
  • Retail Sales y/y
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • SECO Consumer Climate
  • Foreign Currency Reserves
  • PPI m/m
  • Credit Suisse Economic Expectations
  • GDP q/q
  • Retail Sales y/y
  • KOF Economic Barometer
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • CPI m/m
  • Foreign Currency Reserves

Therefore, if you want to trade USD/CHF using the economics, you must focus on USD-related economic factors and news. Indeed, 99% of USD/CHF fluctuation is related to USD, not CHF, because as I mentioned, CHF is so stable and its value doesn’t change that much.

What Is the USD/CHF Long-Term Forecast?

It is the monthly time frame that has to answer this question. Fortunately, it is not too complicated to analyze the direction of USD/CHF both in short and long-terms. USD/CHF has been going down almost since 2000. Therefore, it is over 20 years that is going down. In 2011.08.01, it formed the lowest price it could ever reach. It reached 0.7066 which is a horrible value for USD. Since that time, it has almost moved sideways.

The pattern we can currently see on USD/CHF monthly time frame looks like a half Saucer pattern. Therefore, I expect that it starts going up gradually to form the other half, although it has broken below a support level and it can go down again to from another low:

Trading USD CHF

It seems that USD/CHF has already started forming higher lows and is slightly going up. On the daily chart, there is a too long and strong descending channel that its resistance looks broken. This is the sign of changing the direction and trying to go up. It can be the beginning of a long and continuous uptrend that will from the second half of the Saucer pattern that I shows you above. I have used the Andrews’ Pitchfork tool to follow the channel:

USD/CHF Long-Term Forecast

It looks a little different on the weekly chart. On the weekly time-frame, the downtrend is still too strong and you cannot see any signs of reversal:

USD/CHF Weekly

The other thing is that a strong support level breakout is formed on the weekly chart that means this market is still bearish and it can go lower and form another low:

USD/CHF Weekly

CHF Is a Safe Haven, But USD/CHF Is Not

It is years that people of the world know CHF as the best currency to turn their wealth into and hold it for decades. That’s why CHF is called safe haven. But does it mean that Forex traders can consider USD/CHF as a safe haven too?

When it comes to Forex trading, all currency pairs are risky if you don’t know what direction you must take. You can lose money with all of them if you don’t know how to trade. This is true that USD/CHF is a trending currency pair. But it makes money for you only when you follow the trend.

As I explained above, USD/CHF behavior strongly depends on USD, which is a too volatile currency and its value changes all the time. Therefore, when you trade USD/CHF, you are following USD, and so the United States news and economy, not Swiss Franc and Switzerland.

What makes you successful in trading USD/CHF is your experience and knowledge in analyzing the markets and locating the buy/sell signals. If you reach such a level, you can easily trade all markets, and as you know how to limit your risks and maximize your gains, you can be profitable at the end of the month consistently.

Trading USD/CHF

You don’t have to be a professional Forex traders to trade currency pairs and and make money with them. Trading USD/CHF is a not an exception. Indeed, USD/CHF generates so many trading opportunities or trade setups, on the shorter time frames like 4hrs, 1hr and 15min timeframes, that can make money for you. While you are learning how to analyze the markets and improve your trading skills, you can use other professional traders’ signals to make money and grow your Forex account.

For those who wants to make money through Forex trading, it doesn’t make any difference what currency pair they trade. They just need to open a live account and install the platform on their computers or phones, and then they can take positions if a professional trader or some professional traders tell them what position with which currency pairs they can take and where they need to set their stop loss and target orders.

Therefore, if your goal from Forex trading is to make money, then there is nothing exceptional in a currency pairs like USD/CHF that enables you to make more money compared to other currency pairs. When you join a community of professional traders who trade different currency pairs, metals, cryptocurrencies and commodities, including USD/CHF, then you can have access to loads of signals every week/month that enable you to grow your account consistently. Trading USD/CHF is just one part of it. However, you must be careful because some so-called traders may sell signals to you that cause you to lose.

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By The LuckScout Team

I don't believe in luck. I believe in sweat. The more you sweat, the luckier you get.

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