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What Does the May Monthly Candlestick Say?


The May candlestick is closed and the June is opened. It is a good time to check the monthly time-frames. Sometimes a strong signal on the monthly time-frame can show you the direction of the market for the next several months or even years. So, never say that the monthly time-frame is a too long time-frame. Trading the longer time frames is what the professional and consistently profitable currency and stock traders and investors do. Dealing with the shorter time frames is nothing but wasting of time and money: Monthly Time Frame Is the King

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To check the monthly time frame, first you can change the time-frame of all the price charts to monthly all at once. This is what you’d better to do, so that you can focus your time on the currency pairs that have formed strong setups. Read this to know what I mean: Checking the Weekly and Monthly Time Frames

If you are new here, first I recommend you to read about the trading system I shared recently, because the below analysis will be based on that system: A Simple Forex Trading System That Works

Now, we can take a look and see what is up on the monthly charts 🙂

The first thing that attracts my attentions is EUR/USD. Although no strong trade setup is formed, the May candlestick is pointing up and all the indicators have lined up. At the same time, there is a small resistance line which is about 250 pips above the current price. Therefore, although the long trade setups formed by May candlestick is not that strong, a 250 pips up move to test the resistance line is so probable:

EUR/USD Monthly Chart

While the May candlestick on EUR/USD monthly chart is pointing up, it is normal to see that the same candlestick is pointing down on USD/CHF monthly chart. The difference is that I don’t see any support line here:

USD/CHF Monthly Chart

The May candlestick on EUR/AUD has also formed a long trade setup that looks stronger than the setup it has formed on EUR/USD monthly chart. There is a resistance level at 1.65961 which is about 1400 pips above the current price. It is strongly possible that EUR/AUD goes up to test this level. Of course, there is a closer resistance level at 1.583 about 650 pips above the current price. It is possible that EUR/AUD reacts to this level too:

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EUR/AUD Monthly Chart

AUD/CHF’s May candlestick has also formed a relatively strongly short trade setup. There are some support levels here too. So we can’t expect from AUD/CHF to go down for thousands of pips. It is possible that it forms a strong long trade setup very soon, because it has been bearish for such a long time:

AUD/CHF Monthly Chart

And, here is the example of a choppy market that you should not trust:

AUD/NZD Monthly Chart

And… here is the example of a weak short trade setup:

AUD/CAD Monthly Chart

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5 thoughts on “What Does the May Monthly Candlestick Say?
  1. Bryce Wall Bryce Wall says:

    Hi Kamel, you drew a resistance line and not a support line on the USD/CHF.

    “While the May candlestick on EUR/USD monthly chart is pointing up, it is normal to see that the same candlestick is pointing down on USD/CHF monthly chart. The difference is that I don’t see any support line here:”

    The May candle stick looks like a sell signal – However it too is in a sideways movement (right?)

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/450614504/Forex%20Charts/2017-06-01%20-%20USDCHF.png

  2. Bryce Wall Bryce Wall says:

    Can you also explain why you consider the EUR/AUD a strong trade setup? I see that the May candle closed without an upper shadow. But other than that it also appears to be in a sideways market. Please explain, thanks!

  3. As usual, Chris, I am very thankful for your analysis. I have a question for you regarding the AUD/CHF monthly chart. I am seeing a diagonal support line that extends from the low of August 2015 to the low of April 2017. It looks like the May 2017 candlestick has closed strongly below this support line, which to me would add strength to a short position. Am I imagining this, or did I draw an incorrect support line? If I am, please tell me so! I am still learning so much every day. Thank you.

  4. Hello,
    Thanks for the article. It’s so useful and the strategy you are teaching is the most simple one I ever know. One question: on how many pairs do you follow this strategy? I backtested it and found the most success on GBPUSD.

  5. Ben Aqiba Ben Aqiba says:

    Hi Kamel,

    on EURAUD chart,do you think that resistance level on 1.583 is still valid because the price had break him above, and down again ?

    Thank you

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